Mining Association of Canada | 2023 Report

The Mining Association of Canada | The Canadian Mining Story: Economic Impacts and Drivers for the Global Energy Transition 2023 45 The IEA bases its estimates on multiple policy scenarios. The Stated Policy Scenario uses sector-by-sector analysis of national policies to produce a model for future climate change and input requirements. According to the IEA, this scenario “explores where the energy systemmight go without a major additional steer from policy makers.”34 The IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario assumes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals. This scenario would require rapid and widespread changes across the energy system. According to the IEA’s work in The Role of Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, there was a 53% increase in mineral demand for clean energy technologies from 2010 to 2020; from 4.64 Mt to 7.1 Mt as shown in Figure 1. In the next ten years, the IEA expects growth of 71% in mineral demand for clean energy technologies from 2020 to 2030 under stated policies, while the sustainable development scenario will require 168% growth. The transition to cleaner energy requires less fossil fuel input but substantially more minerals. EVs require six times the mineral inputs of conventional cars. Onshore wind plants require nine times more mineral resources than a gas power plant of the same capacity35. Figure 1: Mineral Demand for Clean Energy Technologies, 2010-2040 (Various Scenarios)36 34 IEA (2022), Global Energy and Climate Model, IEA, Paris 35 IEA (2021), The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions. 36 IEA, Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies by scenario, 2010-2040, IEA, Paris data-and-statistics/charts/total-mineral-demand-for-clean-energy-technologies-by-scenario-2010-2040-2. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2020 2030 Stated 2030 Sustainable 2040 Stated 2040 Sustainable Policies Development Policies Development Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Electricity networks EVs and battery storage Solar PV Wind Hydrogen Other low-carbon power generation Mt